Numbers and More: The Countdown to the Dream Bout

BATTLE FOR GREATNESS is the official theme of the Fight of the Millennium between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. on May 3, 2015 (local time).

The poster dictates the theme of the Fight of the Millennium between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr.

The poster dictates the theme of the Fight of the Millennium between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr.

Like other Pacquiao’s bouts, sporting fans declare it as a de facto national holiday although in this edition, it culminates the Labor Day long weekend. We can expect virtually zero crime rate and light traffic. Restaurants, arenas and cinemas are now logistically setting up their pay-per-view of the dream bout but at home without cable and Internet, GMA — where his exclusive contract belongs — was the only reliable channel but the result can delay for an hour or two. Despite of the objections of ritual advertising between rounds and sponsorship carrying their respective highlights of each round, the network of Kamuning/Timog still enjoys high ratings of the programs succeeding the sport special.

On this edition of Numbers and More, the Turf will look on the bout’s past crunched numbers and what will be the probable range of GMA’s handling of the greatest boxing match of the century on both firms would be.

The tale of the tape and the prediction

On this edition of N&M, the Turf will focus on the last five bouts of Pacquiao or three full years (2012 to 2014) before the upcoming match. The graphs below show the full broadcast and the main event of each bout, according to Kantar and Nielsen.

Notice that the main event has not recorded by AGB Nielsen unlike the rival, TNS Kantar, until 2013.

What would the Turf predict come on D-Day?

The Turf would predict that the main event would crunch between the two firms:

Kantar: 41.2 to 44.0
Nielsen: 39.2 to 40.7

On the full broadcast, the range would go between:

Kantar: 32.0 to 36.0
Nielsen: 28.8 to 33.6

However, because of the announced one-off joint coverage of the Big 3, we may expect the ratings of GMA’s free TV coverage — in both ratings firms in the main event and the full broadcast — to fall than predicted. Another common reason is the offering of a commercial-free bout of the Other Two in their respective platforms — both on the Mahiwagang Black Box (ABS-CBN TVplus) and Cignal.

As long as the consensus of the two firms is concerned on the past records, GMA will still get the biggest slice of revenue for this rare moment, aside from the annual Holy Week specials.

Regardless of what network they belong with their respective hashtags (GMA’s #GoMAnny, ABS-CBN’s #OneForPacman and TV5’s #SugodManny), the cry and the support of Pacquiao indeed means solidarity and unity of the Filipino people to meet his foe and to defeat him with his armor of humility.


GO PACMAN!

Like Timow’s Turf on Facebook!

[Poster photo courtesy of Solar Sports / Ticket World]

[Charts made by Microsoft PowerPoint]

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